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I am going to look at some data for standard Flannery 11-16 HCP 5H 4S. Percent for Flannery hands is 0.812% which is very small to use the 2D bid. ** best contract(NT or suit) average trick is 9.361 0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.00% 0.00% 2 = 0.00% 0.00% 3 = 0.02% 0.02% 4 = 0.28% 0.30% 5 = 1.42% 1.72% 6 = 4.22% 5.95% 7 = 9.02% 14.97% 8 = 15.48% 30.45% 9 = 20.88% 51.33% 10 = 21.11% 72.44% 11 = 16.57% 89.01% 12 = 8.71% 97.73% 13 = 2.27% 100.00% ** best suit contract average trick is 9.347 0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.00% 0.00% 2 = 0.00% 0.00% 3 = 0.02% 0.02% 4 = 0.28% 0.31% 5 = 1.45% 1.76% 6 = 4.27% 6.03% 7 = 9.12% 15.15% 8 = 15.58% 30.73% 9 = 21.00% 51.73% 10 = 21.01% 72.74% 11 = 16.39% 89.13% 12 = 8.61% 97.74% 13 = 2.26% 100.00% ** no trump average trick is 7.052 0 = 0.27% 0.27% 1 = 0.74% 1.02% 2 = 2.07% 3.09% 3 = 4.33% 7.42% 4 = 7.36% 14.78% 5 = 11.06% 25.84% 6 = 15.95% 41.79% 7 = 16.24% 58.03% 8 = 14.57% 72.59% 9 = 10.54% 83.14% 10 = 8.22% 91.35% 11 = 5.00% 96.35% 12 = 2.82% 99.16% 13 = 0.84% 100.00%
The only time Flannery opening may have an advantage is if you open 1H and the opponent overcall and your partner could not bid spade or use negative double to show 4 + spade. So let’s see how often that happens. We will assume the opponent has a 5+ suit, and >= 10 HCL point to overcall. Your partner has 4+ spade and <= 8 HCL. percent for 1st hands is 0.812% percent for 2nd hands is 12.748% percent for 3rd hands is 53.375% percent for all four hands is 0.055% This happens about once every 2000 hands for north, or once every 1000 deals for NS combined. Not only that, when it happen NS have an advantage playing the hand only about 36.5% of the time. North South results ** best contract(NT or suit) average trick is 8.249 0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.00% 0.00% 2 = 0.00% 0.00% 3 = 0.02% 0.02% 4 = 0.36% 0.38% 5 = 2.33% 2.71% 6 = 8.27% 10.98% 7 = 18.49% 29.47% 8 = 27.62% 57.09% 9 = 24.08% 81.17% 10 = 13.24% 94.41% 11 = 4.49% 98.90% 12 = 1.07% 99.96% 13 = 0.04% 100.00% ** best suit contract average trick is 8.247 0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.00% 0.00% 2 = 0.00% 0.00% 3 = 0.02% 0.02% 4 = 0.38% 0.40% 5 = 2.35% 2.75% 6 = 8.25% 11.00% 7 = 18.54% 29.54% 8 = 27.62% 57.16% 9 = 24.04% 81.20% 10 = 13.21% 94.41% 11 = 4.49% 98.90% 12 = 1.07% 99.96% 13 = 0.04% 100.00% East West results ** best contract(NT or suit) average trick is 9.522 0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.00% 0.00% 2 = 0.00% 0.00% 3 = 0.00% 0.00% 4 = 0.02% 0.02% 5 = 0.16% 0.18% 6 = 1.61% 1.79% 7 = 6.46% 8.25% 8 = 15.07% 23.32% 9 = 24.71% 48.03% 10 = 26.97% 75.00% 11 = 17.13% 92.13% 12 = 7.00% 99.13% 13 = 0.87% 100.00% ** best suit contract average trick is 9.507 0 = 0.00% 0.00% 1 = 0.00% 0.00% 2 = 0.00% 0.00% 3 = 0.00% 0.00% 4 = 0.02% 0.02% 5 = 0.20% 0.22% 6 = 1.74% 1.95% 7 = 6.48% 8.43% 8 = 15.34% 23.77% 9 = 24.66% 48.43% 10 = 26.77% 75.20% 11 = 16.99% 92.19% 12 = 6.95% 99.13% 13 = 0.87% 100.00% This is for both not vul North south make 991 17.93% 321.98 East west make 2317 41.91% -371.33 North south sac 1191 21.54% -211.50 East west sac 1029 18.61% 163.27
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