First of all I would like to point out that the statistic table is similar in
shape compare to the general case but the specific numbers are different
sometimes by many %.
- The first thing to notice is that the table is no longer symmetric. The NT
side and the DONT side are no longer identical. The NT side is slightly more
likely to have more trumps then the DONT side. (e.g. the DONT side cannot have
12 trumps because the NT side must have at least 2 of every suit)
- The second thing is that compare with the general case, both side has less
trumps then the general case. almost 20% chance to have 7 trumps compare with
16% in the general case, 50% chance to have 8 trumps as compare to 46% in the
- Still there are more then 80% chance to have a 8 or more card suit for the
DONT side. Since there are only about 1% chance for the DONT side to have a
game , ignoring that is an excellent choice.
- Since the DONT side has a better chance to have less HCP and there is
about 70% Chance the total number of trumps the DONT side has is 7 or 8,
looking for any trump fit with 9 or more card is usually a bad idea. So it is
critical to keep the bidding at the 2 level.