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The sum total for both side is 19.85.The result also seems to be the same for all hcp ranges(20-20, 19-21, 18-22, 17-23, 16-24). 9.85 tricks for the 11 trumps and 10 tricks for the 11 trumps. At this level the law of total trick is no longer useful. Having 11 trumps is not an advantage over your opponents 10 trumps. The simulation results shows the 11 trump side has a disadvantage over the 10 trump side. This is the first situation of a reverse value for the trump length. One simple explanation is that the side that have 10 trumps also only have 2 cards in the short suit. There is a 48% chance of a void in that suit and no loser. The other side who have 11 trumps and a short suit of 3 cards. The chance for them to have a void in that short suit of 3 is only 22%. Other factors also becomes more important than the length of your trump suit. The distribution of the hand and high card point (A and K only) are more important then the length of your trump fit. |