Make your own free website on Tripod.com

Up

In this section I am going to dissect the 20-21 NT opening and game opportunities for the partnership. When applying the computer simulation data, please make adjustments according to hand evaluation and opponent bidding. I am not going to discuss slam opportunities because it is usually fit oriented and control oriented and you must find that out in your bidding system and not just pure HCP, or HCL or HCLS points.

There are also many different styles of  20-21 NT opening / response partnership agreements. I am not advocating any specific one. Since I only want to do analysis on one style and I choice the one I use.  No 5 card major. No 7 card suit. No restriction on doubletons. I believe the result of including 5 cards major may be different in the % of games made due to higher % of a major game. Other style may not have any significant effect on the %. All data in this section uses about 4 million deals and 8 million partnership hands.

First of all let me start with a simple table of probability.

2NT hand condition

do not make game

make any game

make any small slam

make any grand slam

make NT game

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 and 21 HCP

21.8%

50.1%

20.11%

7.87%

49.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 HCP

23.9%

50.3%

18.8%

7.1%

48.7%

20 HCP with no 5 card   

24.3%

51.6%

17.9%

6.2%

50%

20 HCP with 5 card   

23.5%

47.4%

20.9%

8.26%

45.9%

20 HCP with 6 card

20%

47.1%

20.7%

12.17%

44.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

21 HCP

18.6%

49.8%

22.25%

9.2%

49.9%

21 HCP with no 5 card   

19.1%

51.5%

21.4%

8.11%

%

21 HCP with 5 card   

18.4%

46.8%

23.6%

11.2%

%

21 HCP with 6 card

15.5%

43.4%

27.5%

13.6%

42.87%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are no surprises here. a long minor suit increases the value of the NT hand.  This is especially true for slam hands.